Continuing the annual Europe Future Forum – a strategic foresight conference that convenes advisers, policymakers, diplomats and think-tank leaders to address the critical issues shaping Europe’s future – the Res Publica Foundation is organising a series of high-level bilateral seminars on the potential for Polish-Hungarian cooperation in the field of economic security.
Through a programme of meetings with experts, political advisers and opinion leaders from both countries, we aim to explore Poland’s and Hungary’s perspectives on the transformations underway in the European Union at the threshold of an age of economic warfare. This new reality has been framed by global events such as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, China’s assertive economic policies, the new US trade war, the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic and other disruptive developments.
National strategies for economic security are of fundamental importance to the public and political interests of both countries, the wider region and the European Union as a whole – the framework within which Poland and Hungary have achieved substantial development over the past two decades. For more than thirty years, both nations – like other Member States that acceded to the EU after 2004 – relied on a growth model combining relatively low labour costs with high skill levels, underpinned by the dividends of peace and the unchallenged economic dominance of the West. Since the 2008 financial crisis, this model has been undergoing profound change, a process reflected in the political programmes of both governments (notably efforts to escape the middle-income trap) and focused on enhancing competitiveness by moving up global value chains.
At the same time, new geo-economic instruments agreed within the G7 – including sanctions and tariffs – are shifting the EU’s development paradigm, as signalled by the EU Economic Security Strategy (2023). Europe is now pursuing policies designed, on the one hand, to shield the Union from shocks such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (disruptions to supply chains, including medicines) and, on the other, to exert political leverage through economic tools in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (sanctions, increased defence spending, challenges of migrant integration and support for war-torn Ukraine), Beijing’s aggressive industrial strategy (Made in China 2025, which undermines European competitiveness in sectors such as automotive), and China’s steps towards potential military action in the Indo-Pacific region (further supply-chain disruptions, particularly in deep-tech sectors).
Furthermore, the trade war relaunched under Donald Trump is reshaping the global economic environment, compelling individual states and businesses to address new uncertainties – as both risks and opportunities.
Warsaw and Budapest currently pursue markedly different courses in foreign policy, both in strategic communication and in relations with external actors. Poland’s sustained economic success and the renewed democratic mandate secured by its government in 2023 have strengthened its position within the European Union, in contrast to Hungary’s weakening economic standing and the waning phase of Viktor Orbán’s administration, whose domestic and international actions have led to growing isolation.
These tensions are compounded by the prospect of Ukraine’s future EU membership, which offers significant development potential for the entire Central and Eastern European region while simultaneously raising uncertainties about established economic models in our countries (Ukrainian labour, agricultural and energy capacity, and the cultivation of competitiveness in innovative industries).
Investment potential, know-how and organisational capacity per capita remain broadly comparable in both nations, creating a valuable opportunity for substantive dialogue among business leaders, opinion-formers and policymakers on strategies and growth opportunities within the framework of EU economic security.
In 2025, we are launching a pilot bilateral format of the Europe Future Forum, which we intend to extend to other countries in due course. Meetings with politicians, analysts, journalists, academics and business leaders from Poland, Hungary and the wider CEE region will employ strategic foresight methodology to project scenarios based on participants’ expertise and experience, thereby generating recommendations to enhance democratic and economic security. This multidimensional approach and cross-sector engagement are designed to identify future areas of cooperation among European states, rebuild bridges between Warsaw and Budapest, strengthen Poland’s and the CEE region’s position within Europe, and contribute to the creation of a modern, resilient, democratic and competitive economy.
The programme will address four key areas:
This seminar examined how strategic corruption has taken shape in Hungary and Poland, and how these developments affect the integrity and resilience of the EU internal market. By convening experts and partners from both countries, the event provided a comparative lens on the political–economic transformations underway and set the foundation for joint policy reflection.
The discussions focused in particular on Hungary, where the centralisation of state authority and the blurring of boundaries between public institutions and politically connected business actors have created a tightly controlled system of influence. Participants explored how this environment enabled the emergence of state-dependent economic elites and how these arrangements have reshaped the functioning of key sectors. In contrast, the Polish experience offered points of divergence as well as areas of convergence, highlighting different pathways through which political interference and institutional pressure can manifest.
The seminar also addressed the broader regional implications, including how foreign direct investment and multinational companies operating in both countries may adapt to domestic political conditions. Their behaviour, rather than counterbalancing illiberal trends, has at times reinforced existing power structures and economic dependencies.
A dedicated section of the discussion focused on de-oligarchisation strategies relevant to Hungary. Participants assessed what it would take to unwind entrenched networks of political and economic influence, rebuild autonomous institutions, and restore competitive market conditions. They also considered the significant obstacles any future reform-minded government would face, especially where institutional capture and long-term economic alignments remain deeply embedded.
If you would like to learn more about strategic corruption in the EU internal market, read the policy brief De-Oligarchisation as a Strategy to Enhance Security and Political Freedom of Hungary and the European Union. This brief highlights the main facts about oligarchic practices in Hungary in comparison to Poland and sets the grounds for a policy debate between Polish and Hungarian partners in search of upgrading countries and the EU’s overall economic security.
Check out the episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast Can Elections Break Orbán’s State-Made Oligarchy? in which Wojciech Przybylski speaks with two insiders of Hungary’s economic and political transformation: former central banker and regional investment banker András Simor and former economy minister and governor of the National Bank of Hungary Péter Ákos Bod.