Continuing the annual Europe Future Forum – a strategic foresight conference that convenes advisers, policymakers, diplomats and think-tank leaders to address the critical issues shaping Europe’s future – the Res Publica Foundation is organising a series of high-level bilateral seminars on the potential for Polish-Hungarian cooperation in the field of economic security.
Poland-Hungary Chokepoints is the new video breaking down the divergent strategies of Poland and Hungary toward the key economic challenges both nations face. We dissect four strategic chokepoints where politics and economics collide – from oligarchs to Chinese investments.
photo.: Mariusz Bodnar
This seminar examined how strategic corruption has taken shape in Hungary and Poland, and how these developments affect the integrity and resilience of the EU internal market. By convening experts and partners from both countries, the event provided a comparative lens on the political–economic transformations underway and set the foundation for joint policy reflection.
The discussions focused in particular on Hungary, where the centralisation of state authority and the blurring of boundaries between public institutions and politically connected business actors have created a tightly controlled system of influence. Participants explored how this environment enabled the emergence of state-dependent economic elites and how these arrangements have reshaped the functioning of key sectors. In contrast, the Polish experience offered points of divergence as well as areas of convergence, highlighting different pathways through which political interference and institutional pressure can manifest.
The seminar also addressed the broader regional implications, including how foreign direct investment and multinational companies operating in both countries may adapt to domestic political conditions. Their behaviour, rather than counterbalancing illiberal trends, has at times reinforced existing power structures and economic dependencies.
A dedicated section of the discussion focused on de-oligarchisation strategies relevant to Hungary. Participants assessed what it would take to unwind entrenched networks of political and economic influence, rebuild autonomous institutions, and restore competitive market conditions. They also considered the significant obstacles any future reform-minded government would face, especially where institutional capture and long-term economic alignments remain deeply embedded.
If you would like to learn more about strategic corruption in the EU internal market, read the policy brief De-Oligarchisation as a Strategy to Enhance Security and Political Freedom of Hungary and the European Union. This brief highlights the main facts about oligarchic practices in Hungary in comparison to Poland and sets the grounds for a policy debate between Polish and Hungarian partners in search of upgrading countries and the EU’s overall economic security.
Check out the episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast Can Elections Break Orbán’s State-Made Oligarchy? in which Wojciech Przybylski speaks with two insiders of Hungary’s economic and political transformation: former central banker and regional investment banker András Simor and former economy minister and governor of the National Bank of Hungary Péter Ákos Bod.
photo.: Magda Przedmojska
This seminar explored the economic, political, and institutional dimensions of Ukraine’s potential integration into the European Union, with a focus on the perspectives of Poland and Hungary. By bringing together business leaders, policy experts, and academics from both countries, the event offered a comparative lens on regional considerations and set the stage for strategic reflection on future EU enlargement.
Discussions emphasised Poland’s view of Ukraine’s EU accession as a crucial strategic objective to prevent renewed Russian influence. At the same time, Polish participants highlighted economic uncertainties, including how domestic companies might benefit from Ukraine’s integration and the potential implications for cross-border trade and investment. Hungarian representatives raised concerns about persistent oligarchic structures and weak rule of law in Ukraine, stressing that while economic integration could be accelerated, full political membership may not yet be feasible. The seminar examined the risks that entrenched economic elites could reproduce patterns of influence similar to those seen in other post-communist states, and considered the EU’s capacity to enforce meaningful reforms in candidate countries.
A dedicated segment addressed sector-specific challenges, including the shortcomings of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, which currently concentrates subsidies among large agribusinesses rather than supporting small farmers. Migration and labour mobility were also discussed, with participants assessing both the potential benefits of new skills entering EU labour markets and the pressures on host economies.
Participants debated possible pathways for Ukraine’s EU integration, including “halfway house” approaches that might grant economic benefits without full political membership. These scenarios raised questions about the long-term implications for governance, external influence, and public perception, particularly among young people in Ukraine and Central Europe. The conversation also touched on cultural and values-based dimensions, highlighting divergent views on the EU’s role in fostering shared norms and societal transformation.
If you would like to learn more about the economic and strategic implications of Ukraine’s EU accession, read the policy brief Hungary and Poland Economic Security and Ukraine EU Membership. This brief outlines the potential economic impact of Ukraine joining the European Union, highlighting projections of GDP growth exceeding 26% driven by integration into EU supply chains, structural reforms, and development fund inflows. It also examines how EU enlargement benefits existing member states, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, where Hungary and Poland are expected to emerge as major beneficiaries. The brief provides a foundation for policy discussions between Hungarian and Polish partners on leveraging Ukraine’s EU accession to enhance regional economic security and growth.
In this episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast, Wojciech Przybylski speaks with Viktória Serdült, journalist at HVG in Budapest, about how Ukraine became the central prop of Hungary’s permanent election campaign.
photo.: Magda Przedmojska
This seminar examined the economic, strategic, and policy dimensions of energy transformation in Hungary and Poland, highlighting opportunities for coordination on European energy security. Bringing together policymakers, academics, and energy experts from both countries, the event offered a comparative perspective on national approaches to energy transition and regional cooperation.
Discussions highlighted Poland’s focus on reducing dependence on external energy suppliers, strengthening diversification, and enhancing resilience, while Hungarian participants emphasized affordability, continuity of supply, and pragmatic engagement with existing partners, including Russian energy sources. Concerns were raised about Hungary’s increasing reliance on Russian fossil fuels despite price caps, as well as questions about the financial flows linked to these energy deals.
The seminar also addressed broader EU-level challenges, including the impact of climate policies on competitiveness, the risk of industrial relocation due to high energy costs, and technological dependencies on China for renewable energy components and critical materials. Participants emphasised that green energy is feasible, but security considerations must be assessed from multiple angles, combining economic, geopolitical, and climate perspectives.
Sector-specific discussions explored incentives for local innovation, smarter pricing mechanisms, and policy tools to support energy transition while maintaining strategic autonomy. Divergent views on security, hard power, and the roles of the United States and Russia illustrated differing national priorities, underscoring the potential for complementary cooperation between Poland and Hungary in shaping Europe’s energy future.
If you would like to know how Poland and Hungary are reshaping their energy strategies to strengthen political autonomy and national security, read the policy brief Budapest and Warsaw Energy Transition Towards More Political Autonomy. It outlines Central Europe’s growing energy resilience, from new pipelines and LNG terminals to expanding electricity links, and explains how these developments reduce dependence on single suppliers. The brief highlights Poland’s broad diversification through offshore wind, LNG growth, nuclear investment, and deeper regional integration, contrasted with Hungary’s focus on affordability, supply continuity, and pragmatic partnerships. It also points to the shared challenge of navigating geopolitical pressures and emerging clean-energy supply-chain risks. The brief offers a compelling look at how the region’s energy transition is shaping its strategic future.
In this episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast, Wojciech Przybylski speaks with Ada Ámon, Executive Director of the Budapest Climate Agency, about Hungary’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels and the challenges of a true green transition. They discuss why past governments prioritised cheap energy over efficiency, how Hungarian households have cut consumption by up to 30%, the misdirection of EU funds, and what smarter pricing, incentives, and local innovation could mean for Hungary’s energy future.
photo.: Magda Przedmojska
The seminar examined structural economic and political dependencies shaping Central Europe, with a focus on Hungary and Poland. Participants discussed the region’s ability to escape the middle-income trap amid global value chain shifts, highlighting differences in development trajectories and state capacity.
Hungary was described as largely exhausted in its traditional growth engines: high labour participation, plateauing foreign investment, and slowing productivity leave total factor productivity as the main bottleneck. Efforts to attract strategic foreign investment, particularly in manufacturing and technology-intensive sectors, created localized employment but remained largely isolated, with most value added captured outside the country. Labour shortages and demographic decline further constrain growth, while wage increases often outpace productivity.
Poland was seen as structurally better positioned, benefiting from a larger domestic market and more resilient productivity dynamics. However, political instability and reliance on narrow sectors could limit its ability to fully capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Participants concluded that long-term growth requires institutional development, economic diversification, and the ability to leverage global disruptions. While Poland shows potential, Hungary’s prospects remain constrained, highlighting divergent futures within the region.
If you would like to learn more about economic security in Central Europe, read the policy brief Polish and Hungarian Automotive Sectors in the Age of Economic Warfare. This brief examines how Poland and Hungary navigate systemic vulnerabilities in the automotive industry amid sanctions, tariffs, and trade embargoes. Drawing on insights from industry experts, it shows how both countries mitigate risks and leverage opportunities while highlighting broader lessons for other sectors critical to economic security. Poland and Hungary serve as integrated periphery hubs in German-led supply chains, with Hungary attracting significant Chinese investment as an assembly and export platform, and Poland specialising in engine parts and batteries. The brief also underscores how global supply chain pressures—from China’s dominance in battery production to rare-earth rationing—directly affect European automotive manufacturing and competitiveness.
In this episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast, Wojciech Przybylski speaks with Hungarian journalist Vilmos Weiler about the surge of Chinese and Korean battery investments in Hungary and what this means for European competitiveness, economic security and environmental safety.
Through a programme of meetings with experts, political advisers and opinion leaders from both countries, we aim to explore Poland’s and Hungary’s perspectives on the transformations underway in the European Union at the threshold of an age of economic warfare. This new reality has been framed by global events such as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, China’s assertive economic policies, the new US trade war, the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic and other disruptive developments.
National strategies for economic security are of fundamental importance to the public and political interests of both countries, the wider region and the European Union as a whole – the framework within which Poland and Hungary have achieved substantial development over the past two decades. For more than thirty years, both nations – like other Member States that acceded to the EU after 2004 – relied on a growth model combining relatively low labour costs with high skill levels, underpinned by the dividends of peace and the unchallenged economic dominance of the West. Since the 2008 financial crisis, this model has been undergoing profound change, a process reflected in the political programmes of both governments (notably efforts to escape the middle-income trap) and focused on enhancing competitiveness by moving up global value chains.
At the same time, new geo-economic instruments agreed within the G7 – including sanctions and tariffs – are shifting the EU’s development paradigm, as signalled by the EU Economic Security Strategy (2023). Europe is now pursuing policies designed, on the one hand, to shield the Union from shocks such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (disruptions to supply chains, including medicines) and, on the other, to exert political leverage through economic tools in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (sanctions, increased defence spending, challenges of migrant integration and support for war-torn Ukraine), Beijing’s aggressive industrial strategy (Made in China 2025, which undermines European competitiveness in sectors such as automotive), and China’s steps towards potential military action in the Indo-Pacific region (further supply-chain disruptions, particularly in deep-tech sectors).
Furthermore, the trade war relaunched under Donald Trump is reshaping the global economic environment, compelling individual states and businesses to address new uncertainties – as both risks and opportunities.
Warsaw and Budapest currently pursue markedly different courses in foreign policy, both in strategic communication and in relations with external actors. Poland’s sustained economic success and the renewed democratic mandate secured by its government in 2023 have strengthened its position within the European Union, in contrast to Hungary’s weakening economic standing and the waning phase of Viktor Orbán’s administration, whose domestic and international actions have led to growing isolation.
These tensions are compounded by the prospect of Ukraine’s future EU membership, which offers significant development potential for the entire Central and Eastern European region while simultaneously raising uncertainties about established economic models in our countries (Ukrainian labour, agricultural and energy capacity, and the cultivation of competitiveness in innovative industries).
Investment potential, know-how and organisational capacity per capita remain broadly comparable in both nations, creating a valuable opportunity for substantive dialogue among business leaders, opinion-formers and policymakers on strategies and growth opportunities within the framework of EU economic security.
In 2025, we are launching a pilot bilateral format of the Europe Future Forum, which we intend to extend to other countries in due course. Meetings with politicians, analysts, journalists, academics and business leaders from Poland, Hungary and the wider CEE region will employ strategic foresight methodology to project scenarios based on participants’ expertise and experience, thereby generating recommendations to enhance democratic and economic security. This multidimensional approach and cross-sector engagement are designed to identify future areas of cooperation among European states, rebuild bridges between Warsaw and Budapest, strengthen Poland’s and the CEE region’s position within Europe, and contribute to the creation of a modern, resilient, democratic and competitive economy.
